The Diplomat Warns India: Suspending Indus Water Treaty Could Backfire

ISLAMABAD – In a recent analysis, The Diplomat, a respected global affairs publication, warned that India’s reported move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan could lead to unintended and potentially severe consequences, particularly regarding China.

The report emphasizes that any unilateral disruption to the IWT by New Delhi may provoke a reciprocal reaction from Beijing, which controls key upstream portions of the Brahmaputra River—a river that is crucial for India. The Brahmaputra supplies roughly 30% of India’s freshwater and powers nearly 44% of its total hydroelectric capacity.

According to The Diplomat, China has already been accelerating the construction of major hydroelectric projects and dams in the Tibet Autonomous Region, including several on the Yarlung Tsangpo (the Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra). If tensions between India and its neighbors escalate, China could potentially leverage water flow control as a strategic tool.

The publication noted that weaponizing water treaties may introduce new fault lines in South Asia’s already sensitive geopolitical landscape, potentially destabilizing regional peace and affecting millions who rely on these rivers.

Background: What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Signed in 1960 under the World Bank’s mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty is one of the most enduring water-sharing agreements in history. Under its terms:

• Pakistan was granted exclusive rights to use the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, which originate in India.
• India retained control over the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers.

These rivers provide Pakistan with tens of billions of cubic meters of water annually, primarily during the snowmelt season from May to September. While India is allowed to build limited hydropower projects on the western rivers (allocated to Pakistan), it is not permitted to alter or reduce the water flow in a way that violates the treaty.

Although India has constructed some upstream dams and barrages on these rivers, none have yet breached treaty limits or significantly disrupted the water supply to Pakistan.

What’s at Stake?

The Diplomat stresses that if India follows through with suspending the treaty—something which is legally and diplomatically complex—it could set a dangerous precedent. Not only would it strain India-Pakistan relations, but it could also:

• Invite international criticism.
• Undermine India’s position in multilateral negotiations.
• Trigger China’s response on water security issues involving the Brahmaputra.

In short, the analysis concludes that water should remain a cooperative domain, not a battlefield of retaliation. Any attempt to politicize or unilaterally suspend agreements like the IWT could escalate regional tensions in unpredictable ways.